From a seasonality perspective, March has been historically poor for the S&P 500 index. In the past five consecutive years, losses have averaged around 1.37 percent. The indices marketpicked offfrom last week's losses, and gains were generally capped. Monstrous gains in the treasury yields and bond markets favored the greenback, while gold and stocks faced enormous selling pressures.
Rising yields are causing traders to reconsider their positions, deleveraging their longs in the indices market, and opt for competitive government bond rates. Combined with overvaluation concerns and the real possibility of a correction as capital shifts hands from equities to other high-risk but lucrative investment opportunities outside the United States, the S&P 500 may add to their longs. Still, on the positive side, comments from Jerome Powell and their reiteration that the economy needs propping since recovery is "uneven and far from complete" may boost indices.
Impact on the S&P 500:
Neutral to bearish. Due to FED's reflation and money printing, the government will borrow more causing notes' yields to soar, heaping pressure on indices. In a historically bearish month, the index may contract as a result even with cheap money priming the system.
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