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Technical Analysis for Bitcoin, Euro vs U.S. dollar, and Gold for 3rd March 2021

The Daily Cryptomenon

This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 03.03.2021

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The overall market is starting to adjust from their previous respective movements. Thus, Bitcoin is keeping things steady as it tries to break above the $50,000 range, however it might be difficult to manage with the Bears, who are yielding to compromise. Therefore, EUR USD and Gold are flaring up with the USD falling, due to the drop in Treasury yields, so the following ADP figures will have a significant role in the market.

With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on March 3rd, 2021.


Market Recap

We had talked, in our last brief, about how the $50,000 is playing a major role in limiting any kind of gains that Bitcoin might make. After the cryptocurrency attempted to rally towards the $50,000 resistance and fell back to $47,500. Once the instrument reached that level, there was a quick pickup back higher as BTC Bulls seem unhappy with the inability to break higher and are attempting another round higher.

The negative pressure that was evident on EURUSD for a long time pushed the instrument ever lower to reach 1.2000. The Bulls were not going to let that break easily, as they gathered everything they had and pushed the instrument back higher to reach just below the 1.2100, before encountering some resistance which forced EURUSD to correct just a bit as it consolidated around the 1.2080. The instrument continues to trade below the cluster of SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) which might prove even harder to break above 

Gold’s negative pressure continues to mount, after the instrument reached the $1,707 support that we’ve talked about yesterday, however the Bulls have managed to gain enough momentum from that level. The instrument pushed higher against the bearish pressure and reached $1,740, but the resistance level was not to be broken so easily. The Bull’s momentum failed to continue the upward movement as we see the instrument currently trading just above $1,730 with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) showing that the negative pressure is still present.

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Bitcoin Keeps Hold of Gains

We’ve grown a bit accustomed to the pioneer cryptocurrency to establish mega bullish trends at the drop of a hat, and it wouldn’t be out of the question if Bitcoin continues to rise higher and break through all sorts of resistance levels. To be fair, BTC did struggle to break above the $50,000, but we’ve seen such movements before and they usually resulted in the cryptocurrency continuing even higher. The current support for the cryptocurrency lies at the $47,500 which has held the short term dip from which Bitcoin is rising once again to test $50,000.

The RSI and MACD on the 4-hour chart of the instrument are showing some bullish pressure with the former attempting to break above the 60-level. This is a very important move for Bitcoin as it suggests the bullish momentum will start to make its presence known which will allow for bigger gains. MACD is showing some of the same characteristics with both moving averages rising above the midline as the histogram revealed in the green. Thus, the result of these elements being assembled they paint the picture of a strong bullish movement.

 


Bitcoin always runs the risk of more downside pressure, the $50,000 level proves too difficult to actually break through. This could send the instrument back down with the first level of support seen at $47,500 which held Bitcoin before. Should that level fail to keep any kind of berish momentum in check, the $47,000 and $46,500 will have to pick up the slack. Any lower, and Bitcoin runs a big risk of going back towards the $43,000.

Current Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish.


EURUSD Just Below 1.2100

Following Tuesday’s immense bullish run and sharp rebound from the 1.2000 support level, we see that EURUSD is currently facing against the 1.2100 resistance level. It had attempted to continue the bullish momentum higher, but ultimately failed to break above the mentioned resistance. This entire show of bullishness comes on the back of an extreme bearish tone on the USD as the risk-on mode in the markets due to optimistic views amid vaccine and stimulus hopes.

The Dollar index (DXY) has slipped from the highs it has been trading at after the risk sentiment in the overall market improved. This came because of the decrease in U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn released some pressure on the Federal Reserve to act in order to stop the economy of overheating. This allowed the instrument to move higher towards the 1.2100 and currently is waiting on more impetus to see which is the best direction. From the European side of things, the mixed Eurozone CPI which we talked about in the previous brief failed to inspire Bulls and kept the focus directed at the U.S. Treasury yields.



From a Technical standpoint, EURUSD is facing the first level of resistance at 1.2100, should Bulls manage to break above that level, it would mean that the cluster of SMAs (50, 100, and 200) will be the next major hurdle. It’s going to be a major uphill battle, but if EURUSD manages to establish a support foothold above those SMAs, we could be seeing the start of another bullish move higher.

Current Market Sentiment: Cautious.


Gold Continues to Struggle

Market optimism surrounding the end of the pandemic and vaccination attempts are making any kind of move higher in gold that much more difficult.

The retreat in the U.S. Treasury yields was the main factor that allowed the instrument to rise from the $1,707 support zone and move higher. The drop in the yields supported the drop in the U.S. dollar which in turn allowed gold to move the bullish manner that it has. Investors are now looking at the ADP jobs report from the U.S. to gauge how’s the job market in the U.S., not only that, but investors will be eyeing the ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) and the $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

 


Looking at the resistance and support structure, we can notice that the first major resistance for the instrument lies at the $1,740, as breaking higher is imperative to continue the bullish momentum going. Moving higher will subject the instrument to the $1,755 followed by the $1,774 resistance levels. On the other hand, an immediate support zone is located between the $1,730 and the $1,726 which should hold any kind of immense negative pressure. Anything below would mean that the instrument will likely target the $1,707 low and attempt to continue moving even lower.

Current Market Sentiment: Bearish.


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