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Technical Analysis for Bitcoin, Euro vs U.S. dollar, and Gold for 1st July 2021

The Daily Cryptomenon

This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 01.07.2021

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The market is consolidating the entire way up to Friday’s NFP (Non-Farm Payroll). Battle lines are being drawn and the better than expected ADP figure has given ideas that the Fed is willing to start monetary policy easing. This means that the EURUSD and Gold might be facing increased bearish pressure as time draws nearer to the official US release. Bitcoin on the other hand is facing a Head and Shoulders formation, which means more negative pressure might be on the horizon.

With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on July 1st, 2021.


Bitcoin Shows Negative Pressure

Bitcoin prices are dealing with the influx of sell orders that are coming to an end on Thursday and the Asian session. As BTC has gained higher support, the recent withdrawal of prices slightly above $36,000 has generally caused continued pressure. Two key technical levels; 50 SMA (SMA) support and 100 SMA resistance over four hours are what the traders are looking into. The short-term technical forecast is based on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. This technical indicator follows the trend of the asset and calculates momentum.

MACD issued a bullish signal last week when the 12-day exponential moving average crossed the 26-day exponential moving average. Later, the MACD crossed the zero line and entered the positive zone, that is, the observed Bitcoin price situation, confirming the optimistic forecast. This sends a bearish signal after the previous moving average reversal position. In addition, the pointer points to the zero line, emphasizing the pressure on the swimming head. Although the short-term technical outlook is bearish, Bitcoin is expected to have multiple levels of support.

 



The level starts at 50 SMA and stays at $34,000. The IntoTheBlock In/Out of the Money around Price (IOMAP) indicator shows that the range between $33,247 and $34,256 is an important support area. On the other hand, the resistance level continues to weaken, which means that Bitcoin may eventually climb to $40,000. However, in the short term, the aforementioned level of support should be ensured at all costs.

Current Market Sentiment:Bearish


EURUSD Breaks Above 1.2200

EUR/USD maintained a high of 1.1850 for the fourth consecutive day, and fell 0.07% the day before the European session on Thursday. The major currency pairs fell yesterday to their lowest level since early April, but then tested four months of horizontal support. The (DXY) index hovered near its highest level in three months and broke out on Wednesday as market participants sought safety amid growing concerns about coronavirus (COVID19) in the Asia-Pacific region.

In addition, the UK also reported the highest infection rate in 2021. In addition to the risks posed by the virus, bullish US data and market optimism about the world's largest economy also supported the dollar. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index surpassed market consensus and raised hopes for a more stable U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). Judging from today's June ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, 61 forecasts were expected compared with the previous 61.2.


It is worth mentioning that there is a high possibility that the Fed will adjust its monetary policy below the target level of the European Central Bank. Therefore, euro traders will pay close attention to retail sales in Germany and the speech of European Central Bank President Christina Lagarde to further confirm the expiry date of the Pandemic Emergency Plan (PEPP).

Current Market Sentiment:Bearish


Gold's Battle Lines Ahead of US Data

Gold consolidated the rebound trend of the previous day, updated the intraday low to $1767, and fell 0.20% in a single day in early trading on Thursday. The positioning of the end of the quarter and lower US Treasury yields seem to have triggered a corrective correction for gold on Wednesday. Increasing concerns about the coronavirus (COVID-19) provide a safe haven under the U.S. dollar, which in turn requires gold.

Following Australia, with the increase in the number of viruses, Indonesia also announced national activity restrictions from July 2 to 20 this month. In addition, the UK also reported the highest infection rate in 2021. On the other hand, despite the positive data, market optimism is also sluggish and the negative impact on sales, Tankan Japan’s production data indicate potential underperformance. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded for the fourth consecutive day, rising 0.05% during the session and 0.05% around 92.40.

 

 


However, S&P 500 futures remained low during the Asian session on Thursday. Starting from a two-month low of $1,750, although as the U.S. dollar continues to rise, the Bulls seem to lack trailing momentum. As people are increasingly worried about the rapid spread of Delta Covid deformity, especially in Asia, this risk is still at full capacity. After the US June NFP-ADP data exceeded expectations, expectations that the Fed will take loose monetary stimulus measures increased, boosting confidence in the US dollar.

Current Market Sentiment:Bearish


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