The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 06.07.2021
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The markets are all over the place as the pressure on the USD is mixed, especially with the month of July kicking off and there’s not a lot of volatility going on. The economic indicators are showing some mixed signs as the EURUSD finds some positive momentum to attempt a move above the 1.1900 level. Gold, on the other hand, finally manages to break above the $1,800 resistance level and attempts to move higher. Bitcoin, is not as fortunate, but seems to be on it’s way to break above the $35,500.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on July 6th, 2021.
Bitcoin Remains at Risk
Bitcoin failed to break through the $36,000 area and began to fall again. The BTC trading price fell below the support levels of $35,000 and $34,500 and entered the bearish zone. The price even broke through the $34,000 mark and fell below the 100-hour simple moving average. The instrument reached a low of $33,100, and the price is now consolidating losses. It rebounded above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline, falling from a high of $35,950 to a low of $33,100.
It looks like it has formed a major trading triangle, supporting $33,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD currency pair. Unless Bitcoin’s price stays above the triangle support level and above $33,500, there’s a risk of a downside breakout, with the next major support being around $33,000. Under the above circumstances, the price may fall to $32,500 and a further decline may push the price to the support level of $32,200. The next major support level is near $31,200; if Bitcoin remains stable above the support area of $33,500, then a short term bullish and upside scenario can begin.
The recent upside resistance is near the $34,000 and the triangle's uptrend line. The next major resistance is near the $34,250 level and the 100-hour moving average. The main resistance is forming around $34,400, any movement higher will be faced with the $36,000 resistance. Any further increase may push the price to the resistance level of $37,000.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
EURUSD Shows Movement to 1.1900
The EUR/USD is still at a high level, rising 0.10% to a daily high of 1.1874 the day before the European session on Tuesday. Due to the market's hesitation on the next move of the Federal Reserve System (FED), which created reserve gains, the Dollar Index fell to a new low of 0.14% near 92.13 within a week. Also weighing on the safe-haven could be the optimism concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the UK and Germany.
However, in the severe situation in the Asia-Pacific region, people's concerns about the new vaccine-resistant COVID Epsilon strain are increasing, which gives buyers hope in dollars. Faced with a sharp rise in the unemployment rate, the market’s optimism about the Fed’s next move has recently eased, and market confidence has recovered. In addition to the headlines from Covid and the Federal Reserve, the uncertainty of the European Central Bank (ECB)'s next move in unexpected action this week is also conducive to the EUR/USD exchange rate.
More than one factor will be the catalyst that drives the EURUSD buyers to stay positive. Following that, the FOMC minutes for the latest meeting will also be closely observed as the pair bears seek a wider divide among the policymakers. From a Technical view, the bullish MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and the quote’s corrective pullback from a multi-day low, EUR/USD prices may confirm the bullish chart pattern with an upside break of the 1.1870 immediate hurdle.
Current Market Sentiment:Bullish
Gold Price Breaks Above $1,800
Gold was below the three-week high of $1,800, but it was still active in the Asian trading session on Tuesday with the help of the continued full correction of the U.S. dollar. Investors didn't move. In the recent bullish gold trend, Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes provided clearer information for the Fed's future monetary policy.
At the same time, after closing above the key 100 DMA of $1,790 on Monday, technically speaking, gold appears to be preparing to continue moving towards the bearish $21 DMA, or $1,809. The trading day after the multi-day low was updated on June 29. After breaking through the short-term barriers during the Asian morning session on Tuesday, it took a breather near the key technical level near US$1,791.
On the other hand, OPEC+'s unwillingness to cut oil production leads to continued restrictions until the next one. This might indirectly support the price of gold. Looking ahead, the U.S. Service Industry Business Index expects the June ISM to be 63.5 instead of 64. Since gold buyers expect the Fed to raise interest rates before the minutes of Wednesday's FOMC meeting will worsen.
Current Market Sentiment:Bullish
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