The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 08.07.2021
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The market is looking forward to the ECB (European Central Bank) meeting as Christine Lagarde’s speech will have a big impact on the market. Investors are gearing up for that release as they decide to stay on the sidelines for the time being until more news hits the wires. EURUSD has the most to gain to lose from this movement as the bearish pressure seems to be continuing to move the instrument lower. Gold was able to find the needed consolidation efforts after the failure to break above $1,815 with $1,800 being set as a skirmish line. On the Bitcoin side, the brief consolidation that the instrument was under seems to be snapped and the instrument is staring down the rabbit hole of more negative pressure.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on July 8th, 2021.
Bitcoin Uptrend Breaks
With the presence of a resistance at $35,000, Bitcoin price seems to have completely abandoned it’s move towards the $40,000. In the past two weeks, the price of BTC has been in a parallel rising mode. In addition to resistance from the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA), selling orders rose sharply due to the exhaustion of the bullish field. At the time of writing, the $34,000 support level has been lost, which gives Bitcoin some leeway to explore the rabbit hole.
The $33,000 flagship cryptocurrency path with least resistance is a downward trend due to channel disruption. Bitcoin's current trading price is lower than all applied moving averages on the four-hour chart, including 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA. In other words, support has been kept at a minimum level, which may support the forecast of the bearish outlook. The support of $33,000 is still essential to continue the upward trend. However, if it breaks, traders should be prepared for continued corrections.
The Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator also showed a sell signal within the same 4-hour chart; this indicator follows the trend of the asset and calculates its momentum. MACD sends out bullish and bearish signals in sequence after the MACD line. The decline in MACD will strengthen this bearish outlook below the negative zone midline. Note that the Bulls are looking for support at $33,000, but if they do not get there, the next anchor point is expected to be at $32,000, which may prevent the bearish leg from spreading to $30,000.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
EURUSD Consolidates Above 1.1800
The EURUSD continued its two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Thursday. The currency pair is staying at a multi-month low near 1.1795. Although the Fed's stance on raising interest rates tends to be moderate and is concerned about the uncertainty of economic recovery, the index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against its six major competitors, remained stable at a 13-week high.
Due to the highly tolerated variant of Delta, global coronavirus cases have increased, threatening the global economic recovery. On the other hand, the shared currency remains muted ahead of the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde's would reveal the central bank’s tweaked inflation target at 2%, reversing from the existing “below” but near to 2%.
The European Central Bank has revised its forecasts for the euro zone's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 and 2022 in response to improvements in health and the economy in the first quarter. The Eurozone is expected to grow by 4.8% and 4.5% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, compared with estimates in May of 4.3% and 4.4%. This means that there could be some optimism coming to the EURUSD.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
Gold Price Snaps Six-Day Uptrend
In early Thursday trading, a strong appetite for risk affected the price of gold. However, since June 29, gold fell 0.18% in intraday trading for the first time, to about $1,800. After the UK reported the highest daily Covid infection rate since late January and a new variant of Epsilon that is resistant to the California vaccine, outside the Asia-Pacific region.
In addition, according to ABC News, Australian health expert Catherine Bennet Katherine Bennett said that more Australians need to be vaccinated before states and territories can even consider canceling closures to combat the epidemic. According to the Guardian, Mike Ryan, we were warned that early reopening of COVID would bring "epidemiological stupidity." According to Reuters, as the minutes of the meeting passed, Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic stated that “coronavirus infections caused by more dangerous Delta options have surged again and may force consumers to retreat and lead to a slow recovery.”
It is worth noting that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Sino-US disputes are also affecting market sentiment. Due to policymakers’ disputes over inflation targets, special meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) have received increasing attention. So, risk catalysts are critical to setting a short-term route.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidating
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