The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 09.08.2021
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The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) from the US exceeded expectations. The indicator reached 943K, as opposed to the 870K anticipated. Not only that, but the Unemployment rate decreased to 5.9%, with the participation rate increasing slightly to 61.7%. All of this positive data helped the US gain more traction, rising against all of its counterparts. This was also highly effective when the geopolitical tensions in the world seemed to increase, giving the safe-haven currency more bidding power than expected.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on August 9th, 2021.
Bitcoin Continues to Rise
The price of Bitcoin began to rebound strongly above the $40,000 resistance level. Following the rise of Ethereum, BTC broke through the $41,200 resistance level and entered the positive zone. However, the instrument didn’t stop there and it continued to move higher, breaking through the $42,000 mark and closing above the 100-hour simple moving average. Even the $43,500 resistance level was broken. The currency pair tested the resistance level of $45,000 USD and set a high of $45,339.
Recently, there has been a pull-back below $45,000, as the important upward trend line support on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD currency pair is around $44,500. The trading price is lower than the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rebound, rising from a low of $37,365 to a high of $45,339. It’s now consolidating near the support area of $43,000 USD and the initial resistance is near $44,000. The first major resistance is around $45,000. Therefore, closing above the $45,000 resistance zone may trigger a new rebound.
The current major level of resistance is found around $46,500, and any further progress may push the price up to the $48,000 mark. If Bitcoin doesn’t rise above the resistance levels of $44,000 and $45,000, it may begin another downward correction that may lead BTC to fall towards the $43,000 level. Now the first major support is near the $42,000 area and the 100-hour moving average. The main support is around $41,200. This is nearly 50% of the Fibonacci retracement level that recently rose from a low of $37,365 to a high of $45,339.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidating Gains
EURUSD's Bears Battle 4-month Support
When it comes to the rising U.S. Treasury yields, the US dollar buying sentiment made the EURUSD nervous during the Asian session on Monday. After hitting a several-month low near 1.1740, the currency pair rose by 20 points. Currently, the instrument is trading at 1.1761, rising by 0.01% on the day. As US Treasury yields fell from a low level, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the top six currencies against the US dollar, regained its dominance and remained at 93.00.
The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose by 1.30% on Monday, marking an increase of more than 1%. The positive comments from FED officials and the surge in labour data, support a more recent-than-expected interest rate hike. The Eurozone's IHS Markit Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) attained 49.8 in July, after reaching 50.3 the previous month. At the same time, Jens Weidman, a member of ECB, said that monetary policy is more likely to change, if inflation is higher than the central bank's target. Traders are currently waiting for the German trade balance data to assess the market sentiment.
Looking at the technical part of the instrument, we can notice how the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has broken below the 30-level, which means that the instrument has entered oversold territory and is in need of a rebound. This can be seen as the instrument reached the 1.1725 support level and found enough bullish pressure to rise back higher, but the instrument is facing extreme bearishness.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
Gold Continues to Fall, Reaching $1,725
Gold fell to a new low since March, rebounding from a recent multi-day low of $1,687 to $1,707 in early Asian trading on Monday, a drop of more than 3.0%. The multi-day uptrend line and the collapse of metal technical background, with the horizontal comprising multiple levels marked since March 18 may be an important catalyst. The dollar indicator welcomed Friday’s strong US employment data to regain bullish momentum, as it climbed the most.
The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jumped to 943K versus a prior of 938K, exceeding market expectations of 870,000. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% from 5.9% in June and the employment participation rate improved slightly to 61.7%. It’s worth noting that the weekend stagnation due to the US stimulus plan and geopolitical concerns about the Taliban and North Korea also pushed the supply of safe-haven assets to be lower than that of the US.
In addition, COVID worries and hesitations about the Fed's next move are additional catalysts to boost risk sentiment. Looking ahead, China's July inflation data may provide an intermediate direction for gold sellers. Since March 2020, gold has remained below the previous support line, which indicates further weakness in the horizontal zone, which contains an annual low close to $1,676. However, any other decline will be difficult. Due to the oversold condition of the RSI, the price may be dragged into March.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
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