The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 15.04.2021
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The markets are beginning to correct from their most recent run higher, but, you know how the markets are; it’s never straight forward with them. For all we know, we could be seeing a reversal if the Bulls don’t defend some key support levels. Bitcoin has corrected heavily from the all-time highs and it’s currently trading just below the midline of it’s ascending channel.
EURUSD and Gold have also begun to move lower, especially with the current USD positiveness. This has pushed the instruments into a form of consolidation pattern as they await fresh economic input from the U.S. later on through the day.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on April 15th, 2021.
Bitcoin Correcting Gains
The pioneer cryptocurrency remained in positive territory above the $62,000 support, as the support around that level kept the Bears at bay as we currently observe BTC trading above $63,000 and around the midline of the ascending channel. As long as the instrument manages to break above the midline and move in a fashion that allows Bulls to capitalize on this movement, we could be seeing BTC recording all-time highs once again. However, at the current moment, bitcoin is correcting the gains and seems to be consolidating around the mentioned midline.
Looking at the technical indicators for a moment, especially the RSI and MACD, we can notice this correction in play. The RSI has fallen and corrected the overbought condition it was warning on. It currently trades around the 60-level, indicating that there is room for a potential movement to the topside, but it all depends on the instrument breaking above the mentioned midline. Conversely, MACD is showing a drop in the bullish momentum as the MAs are starting to point lower with the histogram dropping below the 0 mark.
If Bitcoin fails to climb above $63,500 and $63,700, there could be another downside correction, as the initial support to keep the momentum intact, is located near $62,000. The main support is now forming near the $61,800. A downside break below the trend line support might call for a test of the key $61,120 support zone in the near term.
Current Market Sentiment: Correcting
EURUSD Retreats After USD Bounce
The EURUSD stayed under pressure trading around the low of 1.1972 while the European session for Thursday was happening. In doing so, the currency major pair drops for the first time in four days as stepping back from a one-month high of 1.1989 flashed earlier in Asia. The major reason for this retreat is the bounce in the USD as well as the market’s cautious sentiment before the German CPI (Consumer Price Index) data gets released. Not to mention that the current COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the Eurozone, all have pushed the major pair lower.
Yesterday’s speeches by the ECB and the Fed bosses, namely Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell, focused on the reflationary fear that the markets are worried about. They outright rejected these fears by focusing on the faster economic recovery, as well as remaining hopeful concerning the future of their respective economies. However, this has little to no effect on the market participants, as they required some strong proof of the upbeat sentiment and are now looking towards the economic calendar for confirmation.
It’s worth mentioning that while the U.S. numbers have been confirmative, giving investors an added reason to focus on the USD, figures in Europe haven’t been all that satisfactory. They simply couldn’t satisfy the appetite of the Bulls, which in turn highlights today’s German inflation figures, expected to reprint 2.0% YoY, for fresh impulse. The main issue comes from the COVID-19 lockdowns which seem to have a large adverse effect on the economic growth of Europe, however, any sign of positiveness would see the Bulls clamoring to help the EURUSD higher.
Current Market Sentiment: Neutral, Wait-And-See Approach
Gold Enters Consolidation, Again
Gold can’t seem to face the higher levels as any attempt is quickly thwarted and we see the instrument falling back to familiar ranges. The latest move lower appears right as the USD attempts to move higher from its multi-week lows. This bounce is due to the recent vaccine fears from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, not to mention the current situation between the U.S. and China adding the risk-averse sentiment. There could also be a wave of positivity coming towards the USD after investors start to unwind their shorts ahead of the U.S. Jobless Claims and Retail Sales data.
Yesterday, we saw the precious metal fall heavily after the instrument failed to continue the solid gains above $1,750. This just so happens to coincide with the recovery happening in the U.S. Treasury yields, which pushed the negative narrative on to the yellow metal and allowed the Bears to capitalize on the movement downward. Despite all that, the metal stayed within its previous consolidation zone. However, with the important data being released today, especially in the U.S., a breakout could be waiting for Gold.
Looking at the resistance and support structure of the yellow metal, we notice that the instrument is capped by $1,745 to the top side. There is a dense cluster of healthy resistance levels there, and they might be a fierce battle for the Bulls to move past. However, the $1,750 will be the ultimate target and it will challenge the Bulls’ commitment to keeping the momentum higher alive. Looking on the lower side, we see the $1,735 as a strong support and will keep any downward pressure under wraps.
Current Market Sentiment: Consolidation
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