The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 15.06.2021
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The market is all hyped up for the upcoming FOMC tomorrow. The market is trying to understand what the Fed will do in terms of inflation and whether tapering talks on QE are a thing. This has caused the EURUSD and Gold to consolidate their respective losses above their supports and look for fresh information to decide their next move. Bitcoin was unfazed by that and focused more on what Elon Musk will say or do, as it seems to have hit a resistance at $40,900.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on June 15th, 2021.
Bitcoin Breaks Above $40,000
Bitcoin formed a foundation above the $38,000 pivot and continued to rise. BTC broke through the $40,000 resistance zone and rebounded well above the 100-hour SMA. Before the gains started their consolidation, it was trading at $41,128. $38,500 and 100-hour simple moving average is considered to be the immediate support for the downward movement. This is approximately 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level, rising from a low of $34,915 to a high of $41,128.
On the hourly chart of the BTCUSD currency pair, a triangle is forming, and the resistance is near $40,600. If the triangle resistance level is broken, it is possible to continue to make profits above the $41,000 resistance level. The levels of $41,800 and $42,000, above which prices may gain bullish momentum. The next resistance is near the $45,000 level; if Bitcoin fails to break through the $41,000 resistance level, a downward correction may occur.
The initial downside support is around $40,000; the first major support is around $39,600, and the triangle is down. A lot of support is currently formed around $38,000. This is approximately 50% of the Fibonacci retracement level as it moved from a low of $34,915 to a high of $41,128. A break of the $38,000 support zone may require a 100-hour SMA test.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidation
EURUSD Cautious Ahead of Fed
The EURUSD oscillated within a narrow range above 1.2100, consolidating the recent rebound from monthly lows before the release of key US consumer data. As the Federal Reserve holds a two-day monetary policy meeting, the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have already fallen. As the FOMC's next policy action is not clear, this has led investors to be cautious and avoid high-yield assets. Although the Fed continued to downplay inflation concerns, there were still some of these concerns as Tuesday’s session began.
At the same time, the continued economic recovery has highlighted the debate about the central bank exiting its QE (Quantitative Easing). Therefore, the market is waiting and avoiding consciously betting on an important political decision in the world's leading central bank environment. On the other side of the Atlantic, some optimism about industrial production in the Eurozone was offset by a few words from the European Central Bank.
Politicians have confirmed that it is too early to talk about the end of the Pandemic Emergency Procurement Program (PEPP). Later today, the currency pair expects the European Central Bank to issue another round of statements before the U.S. Producer and Retail Price Index (PPI) data, focusing on Wednesday’s FOMC results and President Jerome Powell’s next speech.
Current Market Sentiment:Cautious
Gold is Negative Ahead of FOMC
The U.S. dollar rose higher before the FOMC meeting, and the price of gold fell yet again; however, the decline in the yield of US Treasuries restrained the decline in gold prices. Gold prices almost tested the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $1,840, and then quickly rebounded to the supply area of $1,870. At the time of writing, the price of gold had fallen by nearly 0.40% and right now it's hovering at a daily low of around US$1,860.
As market sentiment is mixed, boosting demand for market safe havens, the downside may see the slightest resistance. Investors are now seeking more information from the Fed, who starts its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with the results to be delivered tomorrow. The US retail sales report has regained momentum and attracted people's attention. Gold looked very distressed on Monday, falling from a high of $1,878.08 to a low of $1,844.63, or $1.8% or more than 33 USD. Relatively speaking, the US dollar has remained virtually unchanged.
According to DXY, the index remains unchanged and remains in the range of 90.4120 to 90.6010. As investors prepare for the Fed meeting this week, the U.S. dollar is consolidating after recording its biggest weekly gain since early May on Friday. As the U.S. stock market hit a record high since April, and the U.S. yield is showing a sideways trend, the Fed claims that high inflation will be temporary, which has put pressure on the U.S. dollar for several weeks.
Current Market Sentiment:Cautious
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