The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 16.07.2021
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Market sentiment seems to be leaning to the risk-off side, as multiple aspects are leaving much to be desired in terms of positive news. Whether this results from the recent talks between China and the US, or between Germany and the US, or even the overall negativity that seems to have attracted the attention of safe-haven traders. EURUSD is currently attempting to counterbalance this negativity and keep the Bears from breaking below 1.1800. Gold, however, is keeping things in check as it trades above the 200-SMA and seems to be heading towards another consolidation. Bitcoin isn’t doing all that well either, as the Bears are seeking a break below the $31,500 to reach $30,000.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on July 16th, 2021.
Bitcoin to Uphold Uptrend
Bitcoin prices have been underwater for most of the week. However, a bullish outlook appeared at the end of the Asian session that ended on Friday, and the impressive support of $31,000 was subsequently confirmed, allowing more retail investors to see Bitcoin's rebound as expected. It rebounded to $36,000. Generally, Bitcoin is traded in a parallel downward trend pattern, as shown in the 12-hour chart. In other words, the overall direction of prices is downward. However, the pullback from the $36,000 support level continued, exacerbated by the lower limit of the channel.
If this upward trend continues, BTC may break the long-term decline and rise to $36,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights the growing aggressiveness of the bullish sector. The technical tool monitors the trend of Bitcoin and calculates its strength. The sharp rise from the level near the oversold area indicates that the control of the bulls has tightened and Bitcoin may be approaching higher levels. On the other hand, breaking through the midline of the descending channel will help confirm the rebound.
In the short term, a four-hour closing price higher than $32,000 may trigger a new buy order because it attracts investors. The market hopes that the price of Bitcoin will soar to $36,000 and $40,000 respectively. It is worth noting that when the 50 simple moving average (SMA) is below the 100 SMA, the 4-hour chart recently appeared in a death cross pattern. Although the recovery is in full swing, the impact of this bearish pattern may still drag Bitcoin. Please note that due to Bitcoin's price volatility at $30,000, failure to close above the average channel limit may offset the upward trend.
Current Market Sentiment:Bullish
EURUSD Defends 1.1800
The EURUSD rebounded to 1.1810, reversing the decline in early Asian trading and preparing for Friday's European session. The recent price movements may be related to the fall of the US dollar against the background of price changes. The market sentiment has been affected by the movements of the US Treasury and the change in the US index.
The return of the coronavirus in the West and new concerns about the US-China dispute have previously contributed to risk-off market sentiment. The German Prime Minister’s meeting with US President Joe Biden was related to Russia’s estrangement. It is worth noting that the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Dublin on Friday to meet with Irish Taoiseach, Micheál Martin to discuss many topics including the above-mentioned risk catalyst agreement.
In contrast, President Biden’s optimism on the infrastructure bill seems to be due to the fact that the Democrats are united in the demand of more than $3.5 trillion to boost market optimism. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s refusal to tighten monetary policy and the mixed US data released yesterday further eased market sentiment. It is worth noting that inflation in the Eurozone is getting worse, so today's final CPI version in June is closely watched, even if these figures are less likely to deviate from the initial forecast of 0.3%.
Current Market Sentiment:Bullish
Gold Eases But Holds 200-SMA
Gold found a new offer near the 200-moving daily average (DMA) at $1,826 as it tried to retest the monthly high of $1,834. For the gold traders, the US dollar triggered a rebound from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell because better market sentiment affected its attractive safe haven. However, until the key US retail sales and consumer confidence data are released, further gains may still be out of reach.
The recent rebound in gold may be related to risk-on sentiment, and it broke the key 200-DMA mark on the day. Another important technical resistance to growth. Due to the attractive safe haven of the U.S. dollar, the index (DXY) remains fixed and restricts the investment flow of gold. This sentiment has also been affected by growing concerns about the coronavirus in the West and the Asia-Pacific region, which have recently increased the risk of economic recovery from the pandemic.
In addition, the anticipation of new Beijing sanctions between the United States and China and the tension of Longguo's refusal to meet with US and Chinese diplomats are exacerbating market riskiness. It is important to track Michigan consumer sentiment sales and preliminary indicators, which are expected to be 0.4% and 86.5% in June and July, respectively. Despite risk catalysts such as updates and news from China, if not ignored by Fedspeak, they will be at the forefront of the new momentum.
Current Market Sentiment:Cautiously Bullish
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