The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 23.08.2021
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Markets are fully focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium. There had been fears of its cancellation due to the pandemic, but with the conference going virtual, it was a breath of fresh air. The instruments are still being affected by the USD, and any movements in the major currency is going to be reflected in other sections of the markets.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on August 23rd, 2021.
Bitcoin Breaks Above $50,000
Bitcoin has been able to remain high above the $46,000 support zone. The mentioned level has been an important one for the instrument as it staged a massive rally higher. There was a clear break above the $48,000 resistance area and the 100-hour SMA (Simple Moving Average) that pushed the price above the key resistance at $50,000. BTC traded at $50,300 and is currently consolidating gains. The nearest support is around $49,750.
It is approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with the highest level at $50,306. Bitcoin price is currently trading above $48,000 and a 100-hour simple moving average. A major bullish trend line with support is also forming around $49,200 on the hourly chart. On the other hand, immediate resistance is around the $50,300 level. While the first key resistance near the $50,500 level, Bulls are likely to target further gains above it.
The next big stop for the Bulls could be $52,000. If the Bulls are unable to establish the needed momentum to continue higher and effectively break above $50,300 and $50,500, then this could start a downside correction that sends the instrument towards $49,750. The first major support is now near the $49,200 area. If there is a clear break below the trendline support, a return to the $48,000 support area is possible.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidating
EURUSD Advances Above 1.1750
EUR/USD looks forward to continuing the recovery from nine-month lows to 1.1750, as selling pressure around the US dollar continues unabated in a risk-averse environment, and that’s just on Monday. The fact that the Jackson Hole symposium has gone virtual may have dampened expectations of its discontinuation, aided by the minutes of the July FOMC meeting released last week. The upbeat market mood has taken the wind out of the recent US dollar rally.
The market sentiment has continued to increase as optimism regarding COVID vaccination, with Australia and New Zealand reviewing their COVID-10 strategies, has given the market a massive boost, all the while the Delta Variant continues to increase concerns of the global economy. Meanwhile, attention is being drawn to preliminary reports on eurozone manufacturing and services to shed more light on the bloc's economic recovery. Later in the day, markets will be looking at the US PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data.
On the daily chart, after a peak at 1.1908 on July 30, the pair came under strong selling pressure. The downtrend line from the specified level acts as a barrier for the Bulls. If the price breaks and holds below the session low at 1.1693, it could continue to correct towards the horizontal support at 1.1670. Any fall in MACD could lead to levels that were last seen in November 2020. Alternatively, if the price continues to move up, a pullback to the horizontal resistance level of 1.1715 is possible. The price action will then head towards the high reached on Aug. 18 at 1.1742, followed by horizontal resistance at 1.1760.
Current Market Sentiment:Bullish
Gold Just Inches from $1,800
Gold continues to rally, trying to hit the $1,800 mark again in a major Fed symposium in Jackson Hole this week. The Fed's event went virtual, easing expectations for a decline triggered by the FOMC meeting minutes. Meanwhile, the potential threat of the Delta Covid variant to the global economic recovery increases the attractiveness of the yellow metal as a safe haven. US dollar price dynamics and broader market sentiment are in search of new impetus for business.
Key US macro data will also draw attention to fresh gold trading. Technical indicators are showing that gold has regained the powerful resistance now and reached support at $1784, which is the intersection of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, 10-SMA (on the 4-hour chart) and 50-SMA (on the 1-hour chart). As such, the next key resistance is now seen at the one-month Fibonacci confluence of 61.8% and the 15-minute Bollinger band above $1,793.
Buyers will then target the $1,795 supply zone, which is the intersection of last week's high, the one-week R1 pivot and the 200-SMA (on the 4-hour chart). Acceptance above the reserve supply zone would pave the way for $1,800, above which the doors would open to test the $1,808 resistance. Meanwhile, if the aforementioned key resistance does keep the Bulls in check, then the momentum might transform towards the support at $1,784, below which a drop to $1,775 (monthly pivot S1) is inevitable.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidation
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