The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 27.07.2021
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The market is fully invested in tomorrow's FOMC meeting, as the resulting decision will suggest what to do with the interest rates in the US. Traders will be focused on the speech of Jerome Powell and what he has to say about the US economy recovery. The EURUSD is seeing some bearishness, even though it has attempted to break above the 100-SMA (Simple Moving Average). Gold remains consolidating between the convergence of the Moving Averages and the $1,790 as a support. Bitcoin was a clear winner, despite the sudden pullback, because the move higher has become overstrained.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on July 27th, 2021.
Bitcoin Breaks Above $40,000
The price of Bitcoin began to rise sharply after breaking through the key resistance zone of $35,000, which opened the door to a sustained rise above the $36,500 mark and the 100-hour simple moving average. The price rebounded above $38,000 and eventually climbed above the $40,000 resistance level. However, the Bulls found it difficult to stay above the $40,000 mark. The high was formed at $40,484, and the price began to correct downward.
There is a breakthrough below the $38,500 and $38,000 marks. Bitcoin even fell below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level that rose from a low of $33,950 to a high of $40,484. The price is currently consolidating near the $37,000 support area. The main uptrend line is also being formed, with support at $36,100 and resistance at $31,250 on the hourly chart of BTC. On the other hand, the initial resistance is around $38,000. Now, the first major resistance is around $38,500 USD, and the major resistance is still around $40,000.
If Bitcoin fails and successfully breaks through and closes above $40,000, it may generate additional profits in the near future, and will likely rise above the resistance levels of $38,000 and $38,500. Should BTC fail to do so, it can move further down. The initial downside support is around $36,500. The first major support level is now around $36,000. In the near future, a sharp break below the $36,000 support level and trend line may push the price to the $35,000 support area.
Current Market Sentiment:Cautiously Bullish
EURUSD Remains Sluggish Around 1.1800
The euro/dollar fell to 1.1800, almost unchanged before the opening of the European session on Tuesday. The common currency pair failed to keep any of the optimism that surrounded it due to optimistic news about COVID-19. This week is a lively week, as COVID data in Australia and the United Kingdom added to the cheers of the weekend.
It is also worth mentioning that the recently released US pessimistic data indicate that the latest virus updates from Australia and the UK, not to mention the Delta coronavirus variants in the US and Europe, are rekindling market concerns. In addition, there are increasingly more disputes between the United States and China over their trade agreement. Looking ahead, the Fed’s consumer confidence, house price index and durable goods orders will be crucial to EUR/USD traders before Wednesday’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
This may have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar, and concerns about the Fed and the coronavirus may keep the U.S. dollar floating. In addition, the latest news from the Senate regarding President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plans and the U.S. — China tensions are additional details that we need to consider.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidating with Bearish Bias
Gold Slips Below $1,800
In the past five trading days, the price of gold has been hovering around $1,800. The U.S. dollar stabilised near a four-month-high, before the Fed’s interest rate decision. Despite the general negative sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar, price movements are cautious. The 10-year Treasury bond rose to 1.28 billion, which fell by 1.27% on Monday. Investors are still reluctant to hold a large number of new positions while waiting for the results of the FOMC meeting, to obtain more information about prices.
The next time the Fed takes action on stimulus and economic prospects, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech may change the mood of operators. Demand is also affected by the growth of the delta variant of the coronavirus. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar makes precious metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. Gold closed at around $1,798 in the calm Asian session on Tuesday. Gold rebounded from the intraday low, but as market participants accepted the data, it remained sluggish for the third consecutive day.
In the short term, the key data to pay attention to will be the key indicators of US durable goods orders and the June house price index. If the June data stays weak, the Fed will have more reasons to oppose interest rate cuts and support gold buyers. It is worth noting that the headlines and updates about US incentives, not to mention news from the US and China, should provide an additional filter for gold trends.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidating
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