The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 28.06.2021
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The market is all over the place as the many avenues are being searched as the beginning of July ushers in a dead month for the entire market atmosphere. This means that there isn’t going to be much happening as July rolls in so the focus will be on price dynamics rather than anything else. EURUSD and Gold are both waiting for a week full of economic releases that are sure to change the status quo that these instruments are facing. Bitcoin is extremely volatile as the latest news concerning Binance hits the airwaves and we saw how the instrument has been moving all over the place.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on June 28th, 2021.
Bitcoin Falls and Regains Momentum
Bitcoin retreated, but the Bulls were active above the main support area of $30,000. BTC formed a foundation above the $30,000 area and started another surge. BTC broke through the $32,500 resistance level and entered the positive zone. A major breakthrough occurred above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from the swing high of $35,460 to $30,200.
It even broke the resistance zone of $33,500, which is well above the 100-SMA on the hour chart. On the hourly chart of the BTC/USD currency pair, it broke through the main downtrend line, and the resistance is near $33,300. The currency pair even rose above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level and moved down from a high of $35,460 to a resistance of $30,200 at $35,500. Above this resistance, the Bulls may rebound towards $38,000.
The maximum resistance is still in the $40,000 area; if Bitcoin fails to break through the resistance levels of $35,000, it may begin a downward correction; the direct downward support level is near $34,000; the next important support level is near $33,500. Now a major support is formed near the $33,000 mark and the 100-hour moving average. Breaking below the 100-hour moving average may further fall towards the $30,000 area in the following trading day.
Current Market Sentiment:Cautiously Bullish
EURUSD Aims to Break Above 1.1970
The EUR/USD failed to continue the previous week's gains and fell by 0.11% around 1.1920 before Monday's European session. Because of the attractiveness of risk protection. However, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) showed its strongest intraday gain in more than a week, rising by 0.07% overnight to approximately 91.88 at press time. The index released on Friday seems to be the main catalyst for the recovery of the dollar amid talk about rate hikes and rate cuts.
After the announcement of the US benchmark PCE, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Neil Kashkari said: "We expect some very high inflation rates to normalize." Consider some of the side effects of the long-term low interest rate strategy reported by Reuters. In addition to worries about the normalisation of Fed policy, new problems in Australia, Japan and the United Kingdom are also good for the US dollar and suppress the euro/dollar price.
Even with the restrictions on activities in Sydney, Australia has been tightened after the virus infection expansion and the surge in virus cases. In other news, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing for a ban on British travelers due to concerns about the Delta variant. Looking ahead, before Friday’s key employment report, the Fed will become a key indicator of the euro/dollar price to justify its concerns about U.S. inflation.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidation
Gold Consolidated Amid NFP Week
The price of gold tried to rise above $1,780 and found support again at $1,770. Although the US dollar has generally rebounded, the risk sentiment triggered by the intensified concerns of Delta Variant of the COVID virus has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven. Under the Fed’s dovish expectations, US Treasury yields fell slightly along the curve, which also provided some support for the underperforming gold price.
Looking ahead, in the absence of a U.S. primary economic event, the price of gold will be dominated by dollar price trends and risk trends, leading to a smooth start for NFP this week. At the time of writing, gold was traded at a public offer this week, up 0.38% from its original price of US$1,781.64. From a low of $1,773.79 to a high of $1,790.44. Gold closed at $1,780.30 on Friday, rising by 0.29% from a low of $1,773.80 to a high of $1,790.37.
Core Personal Expenditure Price Index (PCE) rose 0.5%, which was lower than the 0.6% growth expected by economists. The Fed’s accelerated actions have put pressure on the US dollar. That's why this week’s focus will be on US consumer confidence, ADP, ISM, and June payment dates outside of agriculture. A significant number, close to the one million mark, will be seeded to avert a low volatility summer.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidation
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