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Technical Analysis for Bitcoin, Euro vs U.S. dollar, and Gold for 29th June 2021

The Daily Cryptomenon

This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 29.06.2021

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The NFP event is the biggest event of the week as all traders and analysts alike are waiting for some fresh information in the market to see how to proceed. This could provide additional strength to the USD as the COVID-19 Delta Variant is expected to spread through Europe during the summer season, adding more safe haven bets on the instrument. EURUSD and Gold are both facing this strong USD as they attempt to keep the support levels in check. Bitcoin, however, seems on the verge of a major move higher above $35,000 but the momentum is not helping the instrument.

With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on June 29th, 2021.


Bitcoin Consolidates Above $34,000

Bitcoin's rebound from around the $30,000 support has been coming up short, mainly due to the huge resistance near $35,000. The Bulls and Bears have been fighting in the past few days, but the strong support of $34,000 and the resistance of $35,5000 have not wavered. At the time of writing, the Bulls sought to overcome obstacles and eventually climbed to $40,000. Buyer congestion at the $34,000 level is critical to the continuation of the upward trend.

Therefore, defending is a top priority for the Bulls. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is bullish on the 4-hour chart. When the trend momentum indicator moves in the positive zone (above the zero line), the trend tends to reverse upward. The signal line indicates that BTC is in the buy zone. On the other hand, the 100-SMA barrier needs to be lifted to make the profit reach $40,000. Other obstacles to overcome include the current 200 SMA at $36,000 and the accumulation of sellers at $38,000.

 



On the other hand, the immediate support level of $34,000 must be maintained to support the upward trend. However, the direction of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that sideways trading may continue in the near future. If the support level of $34,000 is broken, Bitcoin may fall to the nearest support area between $32,000 and $30,000.

Current Market Sentiment:Cautiously Bullish


EURUSD Faces Negative Pressure

The euro/dollar currency pair is still falling, hitting an intraday low of 1.1910 during a two-day downtrend in early trading on Tuesday. Before Germany releases key inflation data and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks, traders' cautious sentiment towards the euro may also provide support for sellers of the currency pair.

The current situation with COVID-19 cases which have wreaked havoc on the Asia-Pacific front, as well as the UK, is joined by the current mixed signals from the Fed which added more power to the USD as a safe-haven. It’s worth noting that Asia’s weak calendar and month-end positions, as well as mixed concerns about US President Joe Biden’s approval of infrastructure spending, are putting extra pressure on the currency pair by enticing sellers.


Among these developments, stock futures in the United States and Europe fell slightly as of this writing, while stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were also under pressure. There are also updates from Covid and Fedspeak on the radar of EUR/USD traders. However, the NFP sentiment from the US may inhibit the short-term trend of major currency pairs.

Current Market Sentiment:Cautiously Bearish


Gold Continues to Consolidate

Due to the predominance of risk appetite on Tuesday and demand for the US dollar rose again, gold further strengthened Monday’s negative momentum and traded below $1,780. The sharp rise continues to surprise investors, especially with how Covid Delta virus cases are spreading in the Asia-Pacific region, and Australia adopting stricter restrictions. The Fed’s policy report on inflation and monetary policy prevented gold traders from actively bidding.

Despite the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, pessimism in gold prices still exists. At the same time, the Fed’s consumer confidence data are still the main market drivers. As the market began to come down from the hawkish tilt of the Fed on June 16, this allowed the week to start smoothly. However, the spread of the coronavirus in Asia, leads to a slightly risky tone.

 

 


The market has positioned itself to become overly optimistic about the accelerated global launch of post-coronavirus vaccines. But the prediction that the Covid Delta variant may spread throughout Europe in the summer which may also weaken investor confidence. This week, NFP data will become an important information event in the precious metals market, because they can bring a new boost to the dollar.

Current Market Sentiment:Consolidation with Bearish Bias


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