The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 02.07.2021
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It’s NFP day, which means all markets are going to be rather dull without much movement in the market. This is extremely important as it will influence the decision of the FED as it’ll be announced in their next meeting. EURUSD and Gold are both trading without much movement for the time being, as they await for the release of the NFP result. That being said, there is a sense of negativity around both instruments. This also extends to Bitcoin which is experiencing another bout of negativity as it focuses on keeping its head of $32,000.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on July 2nd, 2021.
Bitcoin Struggles With Up Trend
Looking over the long term, the cryptocurrency market continues to stagnate. Regular price promotions provide minimal trading positions, especially for large cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Despite the slow market trend, most of the crypto assets are at a loss. Ethereum led the way, reporting a loss of 6.5%, followed by Binance Coin, which fell 4.5% in 24 hours. This situation is no different from other altcoins that lose single digits.
Bitcoin prices fell after failing to stay above $36,000 earlier this week. On Thursday, when Bitcoin extended its bearish leg below $33,000, a parallel upward channel began to form on the four-hour chart. Maybe if the Bulls are in the model, they can maintain the upward trend with a target of $40,000. At the same time, the short-term technical picture turned negative, as shown by the latest sell signal of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. The 12-day EMA fell below the 26-day EMA, and more sellers entered the market.
Similarly, the MACD crossing below the midline (0.00) supports the bearish outlook. On the other hand, the support level is expected to be at $32,000, while further losses are stagnating at $30,000. If Bitcoin stabilises above the $32,000 support area, it may start another rally in the near future. The next upside is close to $33,800. The next major resistance is at $34,000, above which the price may test the 100-hour moving average of $34,500. Any further increase may push the price towards the resistance level of $35,000. In this case, the Bulls may even retest $36,500.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
EURUSD Faces NFP Data
The EUR/USD is protecting the multi-day low of 1.1837 that it broke the day before Friday's European session. However, the major currencies remained strong at 1.1845, falling by 0.06% against intraday currencies as of press time. The June payroll (NFP) has mixed concerns about the Fed’s next investigation of similar sellers; however, recent optimistic US data supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and aggressive Fed speeches have brought hope to euro/dollar sellers.
The mixed signals of the ISM US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and the number of jobless claims on Thursday contributed to the market's vigilance. He told the Wall Street Journal that he would support the withdrawal of bond purchases later this year. It’s worth noting that policymakers in the US Federal Reserve System (FED) are still aggressive and support a gradual reduction in bond purchases.
Overall, following the negative surprises in May, the recent rise in inflation expectations and the Fed’s aggressive remarks, the June US employment report is decisive. If the data confirms bullish sentiment, the euro/dollar currency pair may refresh a multi-day low and may test the near-term support line near 1.1800.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
Gold Consolidates Ahead of NFP
As the yield of US Treasury bonds fell by 1.47%, gold prices narrowed their decline slightly from the previous day. Currently, the XAU/USD trading price is $1,778, it has seen an increase by 0.11%. The strong labor market has exacerbated concerns about persistent inflation and the earlier-than-expected use of the Fed’s hyper-adaptive policies. The data comes from the narrow US influence on the trading day, before the highly anticipated Non-Farm Employment Data (NFP).
As investors remain cautious, they did not hold a large number of positions before the release of key US data. Any major value change may cause the Fed to change its highly flexible monetary policy. The U.S. dollar trades at a three-month low, which makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Gold struggled to continue its two-day gains below the key support level of $1,780, and rebounded to near $1,776 when the Asian session opened on Friday.
Due to concerns about Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) before the U.S. exits overseas markets, measures to restore gold are being relaxed, although the economic recovery is expected to support gold buyers. As the Fed’s chances of taking action amid rising inflation increase, a stronger NFP will pave the way for monetary policy adjustments and become a safe haven for a stronger dollar supply, which in turn may put pressure on gold prices.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidating
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