The Daily Cryptomenon
This analysis was written at 9:00 am GMT +3, on 05.07.2021
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After the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) release on Friday which showed better than expected results. The unemployment rate showed an increase to 5.9% which was not expected giving the USD some mixed results. This was reflected in how the EURUSD and Gold traded. While the EURUSD showed negative momentum, increasing, Gold was able to break above certain levels and seems on the verge of more bullish behaviour. Bitcoin, on the other hand, was unable to keep the bullish momentum and fell below important SMAs as it tries to stay above the $30,000 support.
With that said, let’s find out how the markets are doing on July 5th, 2021.
Bitcoin Faces Pulldown to $30,000
Bitcoin price fell to a negative starting point over the weekend, and the main goal of the Bulls is to protect the support level of $33,000 and continue to rise towards $36,000. Currently, BTC is trading just over $34,000, with 50-SMA providing some immediate support. When sellers are looking for $30,000, a break below this area may open Pandora's Box. The four-hour chart shows Bitcoin trading in a parallel ascending channel.
Since 50 SMA and 100 SMA are not maintained, the lower edge of the channel is meaningful. On the other hand, 200 SMA within a precise time interval can delay recovery. However, if the middle channel boundary seems to form a golden cross on your daily chart, Bitcoin may rise above $36,000. This technical pattern appeared when the 50-day moving average crossed the 100-day moving average. Some leading technical analysts in the industry believe that this model is one of the most compelling buying signals and may trigger a bullish rebound.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is confident about the pessimistic outlook. This technical indicator, which follows the trend and calculates its momentum, seems to have turned bearish for the first time since June 30 in the same period. The 12-day exponential moving average crosses the 26-day exponential moving average, and the possibility of a decline in kinetic energy is significantly increased.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
EURUSD Falls as USD Rebounds
During the Asian session in early Monday trading, the appreciation of the USD forced the EURUSD to continue falling further. After the release of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the currency pair rebounded from Friday's low of 1.1806. The 10-year US benchmark yield reported 1.43%, down 0.10%. The dollar index (DXY) tracked government bond yields and has fallen from a monthly high of over 90.55 to 92.35. In the case of mixed economic data in the United States, investors fell in the U.S. dollar.
NFP data recorded 850,000 new jobs, which is 700,000 higher than market expectations, while the unemployment rate was only slightly higher reaching 5.9%. US industrial orders rose by 1.7% in May, slightly higher than market expectations. The U.S. dollar is rising in anticipation of the Fed’s opinion. On the other hand, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said that despite the good economic development, the economic recovery is still fragile and the growth of the common currency is limited.
At the same time, attention will be given to the outcome of this week’s special meeting of the European Central Bank, which will discuss the definition of new price stability as part of the agency’s strategic vision. The central bank's inflation target is low, but it should be changed by nearly 2%.
Current Market Sentiment:Bearish
Gold Consolidates Ahead of NFP
As the U.S. dollar is finding it difficult to recover, Gold stole the opportunity and rose slightly from last week and is consolidating the three-day uptrend of the previous week. However, considering the minutes of the FOMC meeting and the special meeting of the European Central Bank, gold is trying to push its earnings above the key moving daily average (DMA), which is currently $1,790. In addition, according to US non-agricultural data, it quickly climbed to 100DMA in a short period of time, depressing the dollar due to the selling.
Earlier this week, the price of gold seemed to continue moving higher and closed on Friday for the third consecutive day. In weekday trading, the US dollar rebounded with gold, but this time gold was driven by the weakening of the US dollar and breaking through the 4-day high. It closed and moved between the lows of $1,774. The highs of US$35 and US$1,795.10 were mixed because of the June non-agricultural employment report. If there is a strong and continuous data environment to support the dollar in the coming weeks, gold should be under pressure.
The technical atmosphere is supporting bullish gold. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is printed right at the 60-level meaning that in order for the Bulls to fully take over the momentum of the instrument, they would need to move above the mentioned level. The MACD is also showing some bullishness in the making as the MAs are printing above the midline with the histogram flashing green.
Current Market Sentiment:Consolidating - Bullish Bias
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